DBL - Dilip Buildcon Limited Share Price

Management Outlook & Key Points:

1. Government Infrastructure Focus: Anticipated surge in order inflows driven by increased government allocations (highways, railways, urban projects) and a 50% rise in FY25 highway awards. Expect FY26 revenue run rate similar to FY25 (~INR9,000 crore) with acceleration post-order execution.

2. Order Book & Execution: Conservative FY26 order inflow target of INR15,000"“16,000 crore due to muted past activity, but visibility improving. Execution delays expected to normalize over 12"“18 months.

3. Debt Reduction: Net debt to reduce to ~INR1,500 crore by March 2025 and near-zero by FY27, aided by arbitration/JJM receivables and InvIT proceeds. Delays in receivables shifted timelines by 9"“12 months.

4. Margin Recovery: EBITDA margins (~10% standalone) to improve with higher order execution and fixed-cost absorption. Consolidated margins benefit from coal MDO and InvIT cash flows.

5. Coal MDO Growth: Production likely to exceed FY25 target by 10"“15% (25 million tons) and scale to 50 million tons by FY28. Stable EBITDA contributor with potential for new contracts.

6. InvIT Progress: Public InvIT listing (18 HAM assets) targeted by Q1 FY26. Seven assets already operational; balance to transfer post-COD. Generates INR60"“80 crore annual cash flow + O&M fees.

7. DBL 2.0 Strategy: Shift to consolidated revenue (coal + InvIT) for stable cash flows. Focus on asset-light EPC with limited capex (~INR120 crore/year), targeting ROE/ROCE improvement.

Question 1: Sir, first, just wanted to understand in terms of the awarding part and then for us also. So, 2-3 aspects to understand. One is how many value of projects that we have already bidded and yet to be opened? Second, how much are we planning to bid by March '25? And ultimately, so if I look at we have received two projects, INR2,100-odd crores till date and we were looking at INR15,000 crores to INR16,000-odd crores in FY '25. So now how much are we looking at? And if it is on the lower side, so for FY '26, how one can look at in terms of the order inflow for us?
Answer: The company has bid for ~INR20,000 crore projects pending opening, with a pipeline of INR130,000 crore. Conservative FY26 order inflow guidance is INR15,000"“16,000 crore, subject to government activity. Delayed tendering due to muted ordering (election year impact) affects visibility, but management expects improvement post-Q1 FY26.

Question 2: Sir, I have more questions. I will come back in queue. So, sir, the capex that we have done was on the higher side. So any specific project where we have done INR188-odd crore capex versus we were looking at INR150 crores. So, any specific project which has led this increase? And how now one can look at in terms of the fourth quarter and maybe for even if we are doing, let's say, INR9,000 crores kind of a revenue next year, so how one can look at from the capex perspective?
Answer: Capex guidance for FY25 is INR100"“120 crore (net basis), focused on replacement and efficiency. Previous higher capex reflects equipment purchases for ongoing projects. Future spending remains tied to revenue run rate, emphasizing minimal expansionary capex.

Question 3: Sir, in terms of the MDO where we are doing very good. So, is there a way as a management, we are thinking so two, three aspects, whether to go ahead for a listing of that entity, subsidiary or JV? Or is there a way where we will be kind of giving a full-financial numbers and which can help us to capture that value?
Answer: No immediate plans to list the coal MDO subsidiary or disclose separate financials. Focus remains on consolidating performance. Future value-unlocking decisions (e.g., listing) will depend on shareholder interests and market conditions.

Question 4: Sir, do we have any tax-related kind of -- so on what we report on a stand-alone P&L level. So, these 9 months also, the tax number is on the lower side. So normal is like around 25%, but we have a 20.7%. So, is there any benefit or it is just mathematically way it is coming? So normally, one can look at only the 25% kind of a tax rate.
Answer: Lower effective tax rate (20.7% vs. 25%) stems from capital gains on InvIT divestments taxed at lower rates. Standalone operational tax rate aligns with standard corporate rates.

Question 5: Sir, since we are already third-third into "“ half into the quarter I think 45 days into the 15th term. So, is the same line of thoughts in terms of ending and all continued for us? There is still a lack of order inflow for the 45 days. And how is the execution cycle shaping up for this quarter, sir? If you could give some understanding on the stand-alone part, how will this quarter shape up?
Answer: Q4 revenue is expected at similar run rate (~INR2,155 crore standalone) due to muted order inflows. Consolidated performance remains stable, supported by coal MDO execution. Order visibility hinges on government tender activity post-elections.

Question 6: Sir, secondly, sir, Mr. Rohan Suryavanshi and all are related to the promoters or they are only professionals for the organization?
Answer: Mr. Rohan Suryavanshi and Mr. Karan Suryavanshi belong to the promoter group. The management includes both promoters and professionals.

Question 7: Sanjayji, we as investors would like to understand since the organization is large, we are putting into the right steps to build a new organization 2.0. Why are the results are always at the fag end? Means why at 14, 13 of the ensuing quarters, we get to know about the numbers.
Answer: Result timelines align with sector norms, influenced by Board approvals and consolidation processes. Delays are not unique to DBL and reflect procedural requirements for infrastructure firms.

Question 8: Sir, just wanted to understand what is the proceed that we received on divesting 25% stake in one of our HAM projects?
Answer: INR457 crore received from Alpha Alternatives for divesting 26% in eight HAM assets. Full monetization of 74% stake in InvIT (post-listing) will follow, with no residual equity retained.

Question 9: So, my first question is on the coal part of the business, right? So, I was checking our H1 numbers, it was around 10 million tons, which has now increased to 17.5 million tons...
Answer: Coal production target for FY25 revised upward to ~25 MMT (vs. 22 MMT). Siarmal MDO ramping up to 50 MMT by FY28. No vertical-wise EBITDA split disclosed, but coal contributes significantly to consolidated margins.

Question 10: Sir, the states like Pyari Bena and all the populist schemes, do you feel that their ability has decreased because of them, state-wise, because other than roads, NHAI and MoRTH, our other verticals"¦
Answer: Central-funded projects (e.g., Jal Jeevan Mission) remain robust. State projects vary by governance, but DBL prioritizes centrally funded initiatives to mitigate fiscal risks from populist schemes.