ADANIGREEN - Adani Green Energy Limited Share Price

Management Outlook and Key Points from Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL):

1. Operational & Financial Performance:

• Growth Metrics: Delivered 23% YoY increase in energy sales (20 billion units) and 18% YoY growth in power supply revenue (Rs.6,829 crores) for 9M FY25. EBITDA rose 18% YoY to Rs.6,366 crores, with cash profit surging 23% to Rs.3,630 crores.
• Capacity Expansion: Added 3.1 GW (37% growth) in FY25 YTD, reaching 11.6 GW operational capacity. Targeting ~5 GW new capacity in FY25, with 4.3 GW expected in Q4. Remaining capacity to shift to early FY26 due to monsoon delays and regulatory changes.

2. Strategic Projects & Execution:

• Khavda Project: Progressing on the world's largest renewable energy plant (Gujarat), with 12,000+ workforce. Focus on aligning execution with transmission readiness, supplier partnerships (domestic/international), and scale.
• Pipeline & Transmission: Strong progress in Rajasthan and Khavda. Emphasizes grid integration via battery storage (BESS) and pumped hydro (PSP) to complement solar/wind.

3. Business Development & PPA Strategy:

• PPA Mix: Targeting 85% long-term fixed PPAs (stability) and 15% merchant/C&I (higher returns). Secured tenders with NHPC, NTPC, and state utilities (e.g., Maharashtra, UP).
• Battery Storage: Scaling BESS deployment due to cost declines, focusing on RTC (round-the-clock) solutions and C&I partnerships (e.g., data centers). Avoiding irrational tender pricing.

4. Technology & Governance:

• Digitalization: Leveraging AI, automation, and analytics for operational efficiency, HR, and safety.
• ESG Leadership: Ranked among top ESG performers, emphasizing sustainability and governance.

5. Financial Resilience & Funding:

• Debt Management: Reduced finance costs via Holdco bond repayment and refinancing. Net debt at ~Rs.57,000 crores (Rs.42,000"“45,000 crores operational). Confident in refinancing plans.
• Partnerships: TotalEnergies JVs on track; no financial impact from recent U.S. litigation (AGEL not implicated).

6. Market Leadership:

• Contributed 15% of India's new solar and 12% of wind capacity in 2024. Aiming for 50 GW by 2030, backed by execution speed and scale.

Future Focus: Accelerating capacity addition (~6"“8 GW annually), optimizing merchant/C&I opportunities, and advancing storage solutions to support grid stability and renewable growth.

Question 1 (Anuj Upadhyay):
"Sir, can you throw some light on your capacity addition target for this year and next year? And also, as you mentioned, there is a change in strategy to focus more on the battery storage aspect. Would it be through participation more on the FDRE tenders or exactly the entire system?"
Answer:
AGEL targets ~5 GW capacity addition in FY25, with 4.3 GW expected in Q4, delayed slightly by monsoon and regulatory changes. Next year's ramp-up is planned. Battery storage (BESS) is prioritized due to cost declines, focusing on RTC power and C&I customers through integrated solutions, with selective tender participation.

Question 2 (Darshan Parmar):
"I just wanted to get a sense on the reduction in finance cost and also the deferred tax number, if you could give us a sense on that?"
Answer:
Lower interest costs stem from Holdco bond repayment and refinancing. Tax reductions reflect deductions linked to TotalEnergies distributions. Sustainable tax rates will adjust with profit growth, while normalized interest costs are 9.0"“9.4% for the current portfolio.

Question 3 (Nikhil Nigania):
"My first question is on the commissioning plan for this year of 5 GW. Is this all against the manufacturing-linked PPA? What is the nature of this capacity? Also, how are transmission delays, ALMM, and DISCOM reluctance impacting strategy?"
Answer:
Of the 5 GW, 85% is solar (75% PPA, 25% merchant) and 15% wind (100% merchant). Transmission delays are mitigated via grid alignment and battery solutions. ALMM may raise costs marginally, but AGEL secured local suppliers. DISCOMs are expected to sign PPAs due to RPO obligations.

Question 4 (Bharani):
"Given irrational pricing in standalone battery tenders, how sustainable are storage costs? What are the supply chain risks?"
Answer:
AGEL avoids aggressive tender pricing, focusing on partnerships and LFP batteries. Assumed capex: INR 1.3"“1.4 Cr/MWh, 8,000"“10,000 cycles, and 85% efficiency. Projects prioritize integrated solutions over standalone storage.

Question 5 (Love Sharma):
"Since the November indictment of executives, what is the funding trend? What is the refinancing plan for the March facility?"
Answer:
No funding disruptions; domestic lenders remain supportive. A domestic refinance deal for the March facility is advanced, with backup options (international markets/sponsor support). AGEL's liquidity remains robust.

Question 6 (Guixin Lin):
"Is there a backup refinancing plan if domestic lenders delay? How is TotalEnergies' involvement impacted?"
Answer:
Refinancing is progressing with domestic lenders, backed by international options/sponsor liquidity. TotalEnergies' partnership remains unaffected; no financial impact on AGEL as no new equity is required.

Question 7 (Samarth Khandelwal):
"What battery types are used, and how long does a 250 MW/500 MWh project take?"
Answer:
LFP batteries are prioritized. A 250 MW/500 MWh project takes 9"“12 months with 85% efficiency, 1.5"“3% annual degradation, and 16+ years lifespan.

Question 8 (Puneet):
"What is the EBITDA run rate for 11.6 GW? What's the debt and capex for new capacity?"
Answer:
Current EBITDA run rate: ~INR 10,000 Cr for 11.6 GW. FY25 adds 5 GW (85% solar at INR 4.5 Cr/MW, 15% wind at INR 6.5 Cr/MW). Net debt: ~INR 57,000 Cr (INR 42,000"“45,000 Cr operational).

Question 9 (Arya):
"Could you detail PSP project progress?"
Answer:
Three PSP projects underway: Chitravathi (500 MW by FY27), Tarali (1,500 MW), and Gandikota (1,800 MW). Regulatory clearances and construction are progressing, aligning with a 5.5 GW target by 2030.